As a leader obsessed with geopolitics, Putin will inevitably engage in a desperate scramble to maintain Russia’s great power status, but he will find it incredibly difficult in the weeks, months, and years ahead to do so. As sanctions take their toll and battlefield losses mount, the gap between Putin’s ambitions and Russia’s capacity is likely to grow. Thus, the two defining obsessions of the Putin era-regime survival and Russia’s geopolitical might-are in tension. It could also lead to intense public backlash, putting his regime at risk. In the case of Ukraine, escalating the conflict might turn the war in Putin’s favor, but mass mobilization would not guarantee success in the battlefield. What has become apparent in the war in Ukraine, especially since Russia gave up its offensive against Kyiv, is that there is a gap between Russia’s grandiose geopolitical objectives and its capacity to deliver. This is not because the current trajectory of Russia’s operation in Ukraine is working as planned. Instead of mobilizing the country for total war against Ukraine or declaring some sort of Potemkin victory, Putin stayed the course. On Monday, all eyes were on Red Square for the annual May 9 victory day celebration to see what Vladimir Putin would do.
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